National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands Thursday
or Friday. Conditions appear conducive for slow development over
the weekend as the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 20:49:14 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 21:07:50 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the
center this afternoon.  Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone
for a bit longer.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially
based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of
2.5 from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs
for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict
when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.
Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or
dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.

The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around
the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the
Azores.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and
is near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 20.3N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 022033
PWSAT1
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015              

2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE
20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 

35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                         

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z
SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z
MON
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

...FRED REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 20.3, -31.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

...FRED REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 31.8 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 022033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  31.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  31.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  31.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  31.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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