National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Depression TWO Graphics

Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:35:50 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 09:04:44 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

000
WTNT42 KNHC 230834
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
that the convection is not particularly well organized.  An AMSR2
image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
definition.  The depression is currently passing just south of
NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb.  Based on a TAFB
Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
speed remains 30 kt.

The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
dry air.  These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate
into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.  All of the
dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt.  The
depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
or so.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

000
FONT12 KNHC 230834
PWSAT2
                                                                   

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014              

0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014                                           

                                                                   

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR    

LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z
SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z
MON
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   


Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)

...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jul 23 the center of TWO was located near 13.9, -53.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

000
WTNT32 KNHC 230834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...
31 KM/H.  A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

000
WTNT22 KNHC 230833
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  53.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  53.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  52.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  53.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230515
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Make this page Your Homepage

Become a fan of
41,018,139
Attention Advertisers!
There have been over 
41,018,139
pages viewed by visitors
to our website since
August 07 
and the count
continues to climb
faster than ever.
Contact us today to
place your banner
above with your
message and link to
your website for a
fraction of what you
may be paying for
other advertising.