National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm HERMINE Graphics

Tropical Storm HERMINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:49:40 GMT

Tropical Storm HERMINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:08:50 GMT

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 526 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at 523 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Tropical Storm HERMINE Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Tropical Storm HERMINE Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:23:52 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics

Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:36:42 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:08:16 GMT

Hurricane GASTON Graphics

Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:42:42 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 21:07:41 GMT

Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 312052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system appears better organized on satellite images than it was
yesterday, with more evidence of convective banding features.
However, based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data the center is
still situated near the northern edge of the main convective cloud
mass.  Also, data from the aircraft show a very asymmetric wind
field with all of the strong winds occurring over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the circulation.  The advisory intensity
is set to 40 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the
Hurricane Hunters.  Hermine should be in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear until it nears the coast, when
the dynamical models show increasing shear.  The official intensity
forecast has been nudged upward a bit, and there is a distinct
possibility that Hermine could become a hurricane before landfall.
The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on
the latest global model forecasts, which show the cyclone becoming
embedded within a front over the eastern United States by 72 hours.

The aircraft data show a rather broad area of light winds near the
center, making the actual center fixes a little uncertain.
However, the best estimate of initial motion is north-northeastward
or 030/6 kt.  A developing mid-level trough over the southeastern
United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward at
increasing forward speed over the next couple of days.  The GFS and
ECMWF global models have shifted westward from their previous
predictions, and so has the new official forecast.  This required a
westward extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm
warning along the Florida panhandle.  Later in the forecast period,
there is significant uncertainty in the track of the system, which
will depend on how the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a
mid-tropospheric cutoff low that develops over the northeastern
United States.  The new official forecast keeps the cyclone closer
to the east coast from 72-120 hours in deference to the latest GFS
solution.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system.  In addition to the normal uncertainty in track and
intensity forecasts, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to
extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of
the path of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 25.5N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 26.5N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 28.1N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 30.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1800Z 36.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1800Z 39.0N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1800Z 39.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 312049
PWSAT4
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13         

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016              

2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR     

LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z
SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z
MON
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2(
3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2(
3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2(
5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3(
7)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2(
7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  
4(11)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  
2(10)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  
4(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  
5(13)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  
7(14)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  
4(14)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  
3(15)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  
3(15)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  
3(13)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  
5(16)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2(
8)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  
1(10)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  
4(16)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  
4(18)
ISLIP NY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  
3(17)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  
3(16)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  
3(16)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)  
3(18)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)  
4(20)
NWS EARLE NJ   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)  
2(16)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)  
2(20)
PHILADELPHIA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X(
4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)  
3(24)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1(
5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)  
2(23)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X(
4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)  
3(27)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X(
6)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  12(24)  
2(26)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X(
5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  11(24)  
1(25)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X(
5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  14(26)  
3(29)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1(
7)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)  
3(32)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X(
7)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X(
1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)  
2(30)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X(
7)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  14(31)  
2(33)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1(
8)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   7(24)  
X(24)
CHARLOTTESVIL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X(
5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  10(33)  
1(34)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X(
8)
RICHMOND VA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X(
2)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   4(30)  
X(30)
DANVILLE VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X(
6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)  11(36)  
1(37)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X(
8)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X(
2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  10(36)  
1(37)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1(
9)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1(
2)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   9(35)  
1(36)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X(
9)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1(
2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   7(35)  
X(35)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)  
1(10)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X(
2)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   2(29)  
X(29)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X(
7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)   3(39)  
X(39)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)  
X(10)
RALEIGH NC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   5(42)  
X(42)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X(
9)
ROCKY MT NC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   5(28)  
1(29)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X(
6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  37(41)   2(43)  
X(43)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)  
X(11)
FAYETTEVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   1(31)  
X(31)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   4(35)  
X(35)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X(
9)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   3(32)  
X(32)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X(
7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   2(32)  
X(32)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X(
7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   2(38)  
X(38)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X(
9)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   1(40)  
X(40)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)  
X(10)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  33(37)   1(38)  
X(38)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  37(46)   X(46)  
X(46)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  30(45)   X(45)  
X(45)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  35(41)   1(42)  
X(42)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)  
X(10)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)   1(43)  
X(43)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  33(43)   1(44)  
X(44)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  28(46)   X(46)  
X(46)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  21(50)   X(50)  
X(50)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   4(20)   X(20)  
X(20)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)  19(48)   X(48)  
X(48)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  28(38)  15(53)   X(53)  
X(53)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)  
X(14)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  23(42)   4(46)   X(46)  
X(46)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   3( 3)  25(28)  29(57)   4(61)   X(61)  
X(61)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)  
X(18)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  18(37)   4(41)   X(41)  
X(41)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  20(42)   4(46)   X(46)  
X(46)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  12(44)   1(45)   X(45)  
X(45)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   6( 6)  19(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)  
X(30)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)  
X(19)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
NAPLES FL      34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
VENICE FL      34  2   7( 9)   9(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)  
X(19)
 
TAMPA FL       34  1   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)  
X(27)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1  11(12)  30(42)   6(48)   X(48)   X(48)  
X(48)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1  10(11)  48(59)  12(71)   X(71)   X(71)  
X(71)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)  23(23)  10(33)   X(33)   X(33)  
X(33)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1  13(14)  49(63)  10(73)   1(74)   X(74)  
X(74)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)  23(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)  
X(30)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  2  29(31)  42(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)  
X(76)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   1( 1)  30(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)  
X(34)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  4  45(49)  29(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)  
X(79)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   5( 5)  22(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)  
X(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1  23(24)  37(61)   3(64)   X(64)   X(64)  
X(64)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   1( 1)  24(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)  
X(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  11(29)   2(31)   X(31)  
X(31)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
COLUMBUS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)  
X(16)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  1   4( 5)  15(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  1   5( 6)  14(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  5  28(33)  10(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)  
X(44)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1(
5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1(
5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER PASCH                                                   


Summary for Tropical Storm HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)

...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 the center of HERMINE was located near 25.5, -87.4 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm HERMINE Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 312048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended
westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and
property
from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida.  A few tornadoes
are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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