National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 11.8, -55.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 260532
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Dorian is a compact tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics

Tropical Storm Dorian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 05:32:31 GMT

Tropical Storm Dorian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:24:32 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 260512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form today or Tuesday while the
system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern
United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North
Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon,
with deep convection oscillating up and down.  There are few
banding
features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat
restricted
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.  The intensity
estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.  The intensity forecast for this storm is a
challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of
possibilities.  The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian
over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile
environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola.
Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast
by
the global models over the Caribbean.  On the other hand, the
statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the
system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola.  The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN,
but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty
associated with this forecast.

The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12.
Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge.
The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will
gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday.  A slight
weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should
induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast
period.
The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus,
HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect.  Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.

3.  While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 11.7N  55.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 12.1N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 12.8N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 13.7N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 14.8N  63.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 17.2N  67.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 19.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0000Z 21.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto

Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 260237
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z
FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z
SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4(
6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2(
5)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  
5(17)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3(
5)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  
4(29)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2(
8)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X(
2)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4(
6)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3(
9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  
4(25)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3(
7)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X(
1)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  
1(21)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1(
7)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  36(41)  
3(44)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  
2(13)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  35(43)  
X(43)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  
1(12)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X(
2)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   4(34)  
X(34)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X(
8)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   9(33)  
X(33)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X(
8)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)  
X(20)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X(
5)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)   1(36)  
X(36)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)   2(27)  
X(27)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  28(35)   1(36)  
X(36)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   1(16)  
X(16)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  10(20)   X(20)  
X(20)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   8(19)   X(19)  
X(19)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)   X(19)  
X(19)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   X(12)  
X(12)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   X(14)  
X(14)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   1(17)   X(17)  
X(17)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  50(54)  16(70)   X(70)  
X(70)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  10(28)   X(28)  
X(28)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)

DOMINICA       34  X   2( 2)  19(21)  14(35)   2(37)   X(37)  
X(37)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   4( 4)  44(48)   5(53)   1(54)   X(54)  
X(54)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   5( 5)  74(79)   3(82)   X(82)   X(82)  
X(82)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)  33(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)  
X(36)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   5( 5)  55(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)  
X(61)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)  19(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)  
X(20)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)

BARBADOS       34  1  75(76)  12(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)  
X(88)
BARBADOS       50  X  28(28)  12(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)  
X(40)
BARBADOS       64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)

GRENADA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)

JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 260236
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  55.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  15SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  55.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N  57.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.8N  59.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N  61.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.8N  63.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.2N  67.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N  71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N  74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  55.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO