National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

Hurricane MATTHEW 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 23:52:48 GMT

Hurricane MATTHEW 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 21:05:37 GMT

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.2, -68.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 800 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew.  Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 68.1 West.  Matthew
is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A westward to
west-southwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba tonight and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning
Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to
diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this evening.  Isolated additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the southern
Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the east-central Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 292037
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

After the low-level center became nearly exposed this morning, deep
convection has redeveloped over the center.  The overall cloud
pattern of Matthew has become better organized during the day, with
some banding features over the eastern and northern portions of the
circulation.  Thanks to some timely observations from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters, Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane at 18Z. 
This
was based on several believable SFMR-observed surface wind
measurements from the aircraft.  Matthew is forecast to remain in
an
environment of 15 to 20 kt of shear into Friday, with some
relaxation of the shear expected by late Friday.  The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is
a little above the model consensus but close to the latest HWRF
model prediction.

Matthew has not slowed down yet, with the initial motion remaining
westward at 15 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the
hurricane should maintain a westward to slightly south of westward
motion for the next 48 hours or so.  Then, Matthew is likely to
turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge,
and head generally northward to the southwest and west of the high
and east of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast
period.  One should not focus on the details of the track at 72 to
120 hours due to the inherent forecast uncertainties.  It should be
noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models.  It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs.

The unusually far south track of Matthew has necessitated the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of
Colombia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 14.1N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown

Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 292036
PWSAT4
                                                                   

HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6              

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016              

2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 

14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 

65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                        

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z
MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z
TUE
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3(
3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4(
5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5(
6)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6(
7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6(
7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6(
7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5(
6)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  3  32(35)  18(53)   4(57)   5(62)   1(63)  
X(63)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   4(18)   1(19)  
X(19)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
CURACAO        34  6   5(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)  
X(17)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  
9(10)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3(
3)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1(
1)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3) 
16(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7(
8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2(
3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5) 
18(23)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6(
8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11) 
24(35)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4) 
11(15)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5(
6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8) 
21(29)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  
9(11)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12) 
15(27)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6(
9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  
7(14)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1(
2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3(
4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  
7(11)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1(
1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15) 
15(30)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  
7(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2(
4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  25(36) 
14(50)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11) 
10(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3(
8)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2(
7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)  
7(39)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  
5(17)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2(
7)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  21(24)  26(50)  
7(57)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)  
5(27)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  
2(12)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  20(28)  17(45)  
7(52)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)  
4(19)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1(
9)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)  10(18)  12(30)  
4(34)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2(
8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1(
3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  4   6(10)   3(13)   3(16)   8(24)   6(30)  
2(32)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1(
5)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  
5(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  4   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   3(10)   3(13)  
2(15)
 
PONCE PR       34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1(
5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1(
5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X(
3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1(
3)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 292035
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO
RIOHACHA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT.......110NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE  50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 150SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  67.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Make this page Your Homepage