National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the
Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center has issued the
final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located just
off the coast of New England.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018
960 WTNT45 KNHC 181431 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Earlier in the morning, the low-level center of Joyce became decoupled from a small area of deeper convection. However, another convective burst has recently developed after 12Z closer to the low-level center. The initial intensity of Joyce was held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 25-30 kt winds on the north side of the circulation. The number of wind retrievals close to 30 kt was rather limited, so Joyce's winds should decrease below 30 kt when it eventually loses deep convection. The depression is in an environment with strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C), and thus the primary forecast question is when Joyce will succumb to the relatively hostile environment, lose deep convection and become a remnant low. The GFS and ECMWF models both show some deep convection lingering into tomorrow before warming upper-level temperatures and increasingly dry air aloft kill off any remaining convection. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point maintains tropical depression status, and the 24-hour forecast point indicates a post-tropical system. The initial motion of Joyce is now more southerly (185 degrees at 7 kt), and it will begin to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. The new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, which was close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. Minor adjustments were made in the first 24 hours to account for a slightly faster observed motion to the south in the past 6-12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 31.6N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 30.6N 27.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 29.0N 31.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Lamers/Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018
230 FONT15 KNHC 181431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE
...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 31.6, -27.4 with movement S at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018
982 WTNT35 KNHC 181430 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 27.4W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 27.4 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h), and will gradually turn to the southwest and west over the next couple days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple days, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Lamers/Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018
879 WTNT25 KNHC 181429 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 27.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 27.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 27.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.6N 27.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 27.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE