National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics

Tropical Storm BERTHA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 05:45:47 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 07:18:44 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 212 AM AST SABADO 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 214 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 15.8, -64.0 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 5A

Issued at 200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. BERTHA IS
RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF
THE CENTER. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND
THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD
OCCUR
IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND
CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020509
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020254
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

While some convection developed near the estimated center during
the
past few hours, the circulation of Bertha remains disorganized. In
fact, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been unable to find a
center
at 5000 ft this evening. However, surface observations suggested
that there was still a small closed surface circulation when Bertha
moved between Martinique and Dominica a few hours ago. The
estimated
center position is on the southwestern edge of the convective
canopy, consistent with the 16 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed
by
the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on
several SFMR winds of 40-45 kt reported by the aircraft east and
northeast of the center.

While the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing on Saturday,
Bertha
will continue moving through a dry environment during the next 24
to
36 hours. There is also the potential for land interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during this time, which could disrupt
the
small circulation. Given all of these factors, little change in
intensity is expected through 36 hours. After that time, if Bertha
survives, the environment is expected to become more favorable for
intensification with warming SSTs, increasing moisture, and lower
vertical shear. Much of the intensity guidance shows Bertha
reaching
hurricane strength in 72 to 96 hours, and the official forecast
follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward from 48 to 96 hours, but remains a little below the IVCN
intensity consensus. Note that it is possible that the combination
of shear, dry air, and land interaction could cause Bertha to
degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 36 hours, followed by
possible regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable
environment later in the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 290/19, as Bertha is being steered
west-northwestward by a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. The ridge will begin to erode after 24 hours as a
mid- to upper-level trough moves through the eastern United States,
which should allow Bertha to turn northwestward and then northward
by 3 days. After that time, Bertha is expected to complete
recurvature and accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic.
The track model guidance remains in good agreement on this general
scenario, however, there is a fair bit of spread in how sharply
Bertha will recurve. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean lie on the
eastern edge of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF, HWRF, and
GFDL showing a more gradual turn and a track a little farther west.
Through 36 hours the new NHC track is an update of the previous
one.
After that time, the official forecast has been nudged toward the
left, but lies a little to the right of the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 15.7N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.0N  68.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.4N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 24.0N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 35.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 40.0N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

000
WTNT23 KNHC 020245
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  63.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  15SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  63.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  62.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N  68.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.4N  71.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N  73.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 40.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  63.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

000
FONT13 KNHC 020245
PWSAT3
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014              

0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014                                           

                                                                   

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR      

LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z
WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z
THU
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3(
3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7(
7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3(
3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2(
4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X(
6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X(
4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  
2(18)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   8(33)   X(33)  
X(33)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)   1(36)   X(36)  
X(36)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)  46(47)   6(53)   X(53)   X(53)  
X(53)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X(
2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)  
X(24)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)  
X(13)
 
PONCE          34  9  63(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)  
X(72)
PONCE          50  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
PONCE          64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X(
1)
 
SAN JUAN       34 12  44(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)  
X(56)
SAN JUAN       50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 27   9(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)  
X(36)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 54   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)  
X(56)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 22   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)  
X(99)
 
AVES           34 47   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)  
X(47)
 
DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)  
X(99)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                 


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