National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics

Tropical Storm EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 08:52:17 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 09:05:45 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 32

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTNT41 KNHC 190852
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less
organized during the past several hours.  The low-level center is
now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid-
level circulation decoupled well to the southeast.  With the
absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength
quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little
higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration
of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data.  Edouard is unlikely to
redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with
strong shear.  Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will
likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  Extratropical
transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the
global
models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing
frontal features by that time.

Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours,
with
initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt.   A continued eastward
motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between
the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic Ocean.  The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous
NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which
results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 39.8N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

000
FONT11 KNHC 190851
PWSAT1
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32         

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014              

0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014                                           

                                                                   

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR     

LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z
TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z
WED
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  16(29)   2(31)   X(31)  
X(31)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BLAKE                                                   


Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.8, -38.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 32

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTNT31 KNHC 190851
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 38.5W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE
SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 32

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

000
WTNT21 KNHC 190850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  38.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N  38.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive by early next week. This low is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
east coast of Florida over the weekend. This system has some
potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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